Author Topic: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?  (Read 1620 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Yummi

  • Grumpy, Sneezey and Dopey all rolled into one.
  • Administration
  • *
  • Posts: 238
    • Jeeping With Dogs
Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« on: November 28, 2009, 10:13:12 AM »
**********************
I like things that move.   Pretty much limits me to cars and strippers

Did you know I have a blog?  Come on now, it is 2016, everybody does.  http://www.jeepingwithdogs.com

Online fabr

  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 93193
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2009, 10:50:39 AM »
Merry Christmas.
"There can be no divided allegiance here.  Any man who says he is an American,
but something else also, isn't an American at all.  We have room for but one
flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is
the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a
loyalty to the American people."
Theodore Roosevelt 1907

-----------------------------------------------------------
 " You have all the right in the world to believe any damn thing you'd like, but you don't have the right to demand that I participate in your fantasy"

Offline Voodoochikin04

  • Vip Eye candy Supplier!!
  • VIP
  • *
  • Posts: 1757
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2009, 11:27:43 AM »
just do like the billionares did..   buy up currency when its bottomed out...  when our dollar drops to a worth of 3 cents.. buy it all up using foreign currency  ::)  and then when this market does come back up, which it inevitably has to one day.. sell.... and become yummi buffet.........
"it's only when you have lost everything, that your free to do anything"

Offline Engineer

  • Inquisitor
  • Global Moderator
  • *
  • Posts: 2657
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2009, 11:48:10 PM »
Good work Yummi, very nicely laid out post!  :)

Without digging out the quotes, I believe that you are correct about them wanting to deflate the dollar in order to reduce the impact of our debt.  I have heard of Bernanke saying he was happy with the value of the dollar falling.  Generally speaking a falling dollar value can actually be good for our economy, it makes our products less expensive for foreign buyers.  Unless we experience inflation we don't really feel it except that we have to pay China more for their products.

I considered trading into a foreign currency so that as the dollar tanked against the foreign currency, the value would be retained to later be traded back for more dollars.  However in trying to decide what currency to trade to, it seems that most other currency's are in trouble as well.  The debt levels in Japan and Europe are actually worse that the US in relation to GDP.

I considered buying Gold or Silver as I believe that both are going to continue rising.  If it is only the US dollar that is weak then the price of gold should be rising in relation to dollars, while not changing that much in relation to a "stable" currency.  From what I found gold is rising almost equally compared to all the major currencies, indicating to me that none are solid.

It seems to me that everyone looking to the Great Depression for direction in this matter are making a big mistake.  During the 1920's we had a completely different problem.  The country was on the gold standard and the currency was sound.  Now after years of irresponsibility and wild spending the foundation of our whole economy is failing.  IMO there is no bail out bandaid for this one.

The issue that I have with the current administration is that all of their actions seem to want to make the problem worse not better.  Increasing taxes and spending with the economy down is proven to result in less jobs not more.  So even though they are talking about creating jobs, their actions are resulting in less jobs.  The only question is whether it is intentional.




Offline komelika

  • Hero Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 674
  • Never stop learning!
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2009, 02:37:45 AM »
Dude! Enough with all the criticism! Our elected leaders should be trusted to handle all of these problems as they see fit. They have to take care of the important things first. You know, like the use of steroids in major league baseball. Why are your priorities so backasswards?!















Disclaimer: The above post was completely tongue in cheek. These statements reflect no actual opinion of anyone... other than US Congressmen.
If you remain calm while everything around you is complete chaos... then you probably haven't fully understood the situation!

http://sandjunky710.blogspot.com/

Offline Reidy02

  • VIP
  • *
  • Posts: 1534
  • What goes around comes around!
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2009, 04:51:54 AM »
Then give em selves a BIG FAT pay rise!! :-\
VTR 1000 CUDA on the way.. What goes around comes around!!

Online fabr

  • Administrator
  • *
  • Posts: 93193
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2009, 06:55:40 AM »
I have felt/said for a long time that our leaders wish to bring the standard of living down in the US to be more in line with the world. It's happening now rather quickly right before our eyes.
"There can be no divided allegiance here.  Any man who says he is an American,
but something else also, isn't an American at all.  We have room for but one
flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is
the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a
loyalty to the American people."
Theodore Roosevelt 1907

-----------------------------------------------------------
 " You have all the right in the world to believe any damn thing you'd like, but you don't have the right to demand that I participate in your fantasy"

Offline Yummi

  • Grumpy, Sneezey and Dopey all rolled into one.
  • Administration
  • *
  • Posts: 238
    • Jeeping With Dogs
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2009, 10:20:21 AM »
Good work Yummi, very nicely laid out post!  :)


Thanks

Generally speaking a falling dollar value can actually be good for our economy, it makes our products less expensive for foreign buyers.  Unless we experience inflation we don't really feel it except that we have to pay China more for their products.

Curious, I went and did some more looking.  Bear in mind I have no agenda.  From the FED themselves:

Quote
Effects of Devaluation
A significant danger is that by increasing the price of imports and stimulating greater demand for domestic products, devaluation can aggravate inflation. If this happens, the government may have to raise interest rates to control inflation, but at the cost of slower economic growth.

Another risk of devaluation is psychological. To the extent that devaluation is viewed as a sign of economic weakness, the creditworthiness of the nation may be jeopardized. Thus, devaluation may dampen investor confidence in the country's economy and hurt the country's ability to secure foreign investment.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed38.html

There is clearly deflation going on - look at home prices alone.   There has been much said about Black Friday - The malls were empty and reports come out this week with unemployment reports.  It will be curious to see those numbers.

As to the great depression for guidance - I was sketch at first to look to  that as a "model."  Then  I revisited the subject.  Now, I know some folks don't like Wiki, but it is concise. 

Quote
Historians most often attribute the start of the Great Depression to the sudden and total collapse of US stock market prices on October 29th, 1929, known as Black Tuesday.[1] However, some dispute this conclusion, and see the stock crash as a symptom, rather than a cause of the Great Depression.[9][3] Even after the Wall Street Crash of 1929, optimism persisted for some time; John D. Rockefeller said that "These are days when many are discouraged. In the 93 years of my life, depressions have come and gone. Prosperity has always returned and will again."[10] The stock market turned upward in early 1930, returning to early 1929 levels by April, though still almost 30% below the peak of September 1929.[11] Together, government and business actually spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. But consumers, many of whom had suffered severe losses in the stock market the previous year, cut back their expenditures by ten percent, and a severe drought ravaged the agricultural heartland of the USA beginning in the summer of 1930.

By mid-1930, interest rates had dropped to low levels, but expected deflation and the reluctance of people to add new debt by borrowing, meant that consumer spending and investment were depressed.[12] In May 1930, automobile sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Prices in general began to decline, but wages held steady in 1930; but then a deflationary spiral started in 1931. Conditions were worse in farming areas, where commodity prices plunged, and in mining and logging areas, where unemployment was high and there were few other jobs. The decline in the US economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first, then internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade. By late in 1930, a steady decline set in which reached bottom by March 1933.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

Now, look at the unemployment rate in relation to "Black Tuesday." 



Now, the market "crash" was one year before the spike.  And, from the chart it appears that once UI hit 10% it quickly shot up. 

So - about them markets.  Remember October 2008? 

Quote
October 2008 Stock Market Crash
  Additional Resources

    * Stock Market History
    * Stock Market Crash of 1929
    * Stock Market Crash of 1987
    * Stock Market Crash of 2008

Although history may state the actual market crash occurred on Monday, October 6, 2008, the market experienced eight consecutive trading days of negative movement starting on October 1, 2008.  The table below shows the decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from October 1st through October 10th.
Date    DJIA Close    Point Change    % Change
October 1, 2008    10,831.07    -19.59    -0.18%
October 2, 2008    10,482.85    -348.22    -3.22%
October 3, 2008    10,325.38    -157.47    -1.50%
October 6, 2008    9,955.50    -369.88    -3.58%
October 7, 2008    9,447.11    -508.39    -5.11%
October 8, 2008    9,258.10    -189.01    -2.00%
October 9, 2008    8,579.19    -678.91    -7.33%
October 10, 2008    8,451.19    -128.00    -1.49%

During these eight trading days, the DJIA would drop a total of 2,399.47 points or 22.11%.  The market would rebound sharply on Monday October 13 and rise 936.42 points only to drop 733.08 points on Wednesday of that same week.
http://www.money-zine.com/Investing/Stocks/Stock-Market-Crash-of-2008/

So what did it do in 29?
Quote
Dow Jones Industrial Average for 10/28/1929 and 10/29/1929[18]
date                            change    % change    close
October 28, 1929    -38.33    -12.82    260.64
October 29, 1929    -30.57    -11.73    230.07
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Tuesday

Again, after the crash of 29 there was a run up, just like today.  So what about 1987?  Well, the unemployment rate was 6.2%.  Not over 10% like it is today.  http://www.swivel.com/data_columns/spreadsheet/4527076

In short, in my mind, there are two factors to a "Depression" one, devaluation, two - unemployment.  This appears to be the only time since the great depression that both have converged. 

The only wild card that I cannot account for is our military strength in relation ship to the world. 

Again, I have no agenda, and I am not a conspiracy guy. 

Just striking me more and more that we have just seen the tip of this adventure. 



**********************
I like things that move.   Pretty much limits me to cars and strippers

Did you know I have a blog?  Come on now, it is 2016, everybody does.  http://www.jeepingwithdogs.com

Offline Engineer

  • Inquisitor
  • Global Moderator
  • *
  • Posts: 2657
Re: Bernakes "Secret Plan" - What do you think?
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2009, 11:41:00 AM »
So you are suggesting that we are in or headed for a depression?  I think that the private sector is there, and the numbers are currently bolstered by Govt spending to keep it from showing.

The Black Friday numbers will be interesting.

Let me make a generalization.  Somehow I don't know if our country is really "In this together".  People are living their individual lives.  People that still have jobs are going forward like nothing out of the ordinary is going on, while the 18% under and unemployed are suffering.  Just like generally people don't care about the national debt because it's not their problem, until this downturn hits home I don't think people care.

So what will be big numbers for Black Friday?  What if it is down 2% what will it mean?  I listen to the new home starts changing by a couple percent and they play it off as big news when I can see that 50% of the construction crews in my area are not working.  I don't know if the news/numbers are even to be trusted.  :-\

 

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2024, SimplePortal