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Offline Yummi

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Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« on: June 28, 2015, 04:53:40 PM »
I follow the economy pretty closely.  Gives me something to focus on that is sort of abstract. 

For years Greece has kicked the can.  Appears to have run its course over the weekend and time is up.  Their banks and market will not open tomorrow.  Member of the Euro so it will ripple. 

DOW futures open 300 pts below Friday's close 17,9 to 17,6 = (-2%) . S and P down 100 pts (-5%)  The spreads on FTSE (-3%), DAX (-5%), etc is pretty wild. 

Expected to be 131b in credit default swaps (derivatives) .  That will lead to some massive margin calls.  Pay attention to headlines tomorrow.   


Hope the week is a good one. 
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Offline fastcorvairs

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2015, 05:31:25 PM »
There will be a trickle down effect.  It will make it across the pond to us.   
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Online fabr

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2015, 06:27:33 PM »
WTH,they're too big to fail,we'll bail 'em out.........................
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Offline Yummi

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2015, 07:21:38 PM »
The ripple is the unknown.   

For every loan, there is a lender.  On one side it is an asset, on the other a liability.  For every 1b in loans, there is 1b in credit default swaps.  A CDS is really just a calculated risk, like an insurance policy.  They go tits up lots of folks suddenly have very limited assets to cover the policy.   

Here is who holds what. 



That is about 220% of Greek GDP. 

This is in many way the ultimate test of central banks.  Much much tougher than our melt down of 2008. 
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Offline Yummi

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2015, 07:30:44 PM »
We will find out next Thursday when the Fed releases data on swap lines how much they "helped" Greece. 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
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I like things that move.   Pretty much limits me to cars and strippers

Did you know I have a blog?  Come on now, it is 2016, everybody does.  http://www.jeepingwithdogs.com

Online fabr

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2015, 07:34:51 PM »
Somewhere the term ,too big to fail or something meaning the same ,will be used. At some point this HAS to stop. Might as well be now as later when it will be even worse.
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"There can be no divided allegiance here.  Any man who says he is an American,
but something else also, isn't an American at all.  We have room for but one
flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is
the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a
loyalty to the American people."
Theodore Roosevelt 1907

-----------------------------------------------------------
 " You have all the right in the world to believe any damn thing you'd like, but you don't have the right to demand that I agree with your fantasy"

Online fabr

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2015, 07:40:12 PM »
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

 Gotta depend on you,yummi, to give the cliff notes ^^^^^. That made my head hurt just glancing at it.
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"There can be no divided allegiance here.  Any man who says he is an American,
but something else also, isn't an American at all.  We have room for but one
flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is
the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a
loyalty to the American people."
Theodore Roosevelt 1907

-----------------------------------------------------------
 " You have all the right in the world to believe any damn thing you'd like, but you don't have the right to demand that I agree with your fantasy"

Offline Yummi

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2015, 08:04:20 PM »
Just data points.  Easy to extract and put into charts, etc. 

BTW, Japan is down 2%.  At open they were down 2.5%. 

Lehman event market was down 4% in a day.  Two weeks later down 7% in a day.  We will see what the one day "correction" brings and see how profound it will be.   Hard to say who holds what.   
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Offline Yummi

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2015, 08:31:17 AM »
I am a fan of Farage.  Heck a fan of any Pol that calls it like they see it even if I disagree with them. 

For anybody that does not understand the Greece / Euro deal here you go.   



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I like things that move.   Pretty much limits me to cars and strippers

Did you know I have a blog?  Come on now, it is 2016, everybody does.  http://www.jeepingwithdogs.com

Offline Carlriddle

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Re: Tomorrow going to be pretty wild
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2015, 11:03:58 AM »
Hard to be honest and truthful in politics.  Votors throw your ass out fast cause they dont want to hear the truth.  Only how wonderful things are gonna be in lala land.  With free everything.......

Greece not only EU country this is gonna happen to.  Be a few months before the ripple effect makes it way out.  Its a Global economy.
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