2014

[WelderPat]

 What are people expecting in 2014 ?
 I have a small welding shop that builds tops , rails and so forth out of anodized aluminum pipe for boats.
 This depression has kicked me square in the zipper if you know what I mean.
 The majority of my work is oem's. and many boat builders have gone under completely .
 Banks didn't want to make boat loans they owned enough boats already that they didn't want.
And three and a half dollar a gallon gas has not helped the boating industry.
 All of the indications I am seeing and hearing looks like 2014 should be a fairly good year.
A surplus of oil should drop the price of gas significantly.
New banking regulations should take a lot of money out of Wall street and put it on main street.
The surplus houses and boats on the market have pretty much dried up.
Every one I have spoke to thinks things should be looking better for next year.
What is every one here seeing hearing and thinking ?

[fabr]

Wellllll,in my little part of the world and in my main line of selling lumber and building materials I will see a decline in sales this next year. I don't know of any big projects at the refinery coming up. Pretty sweet when they do though and in the last 10 years it's been pretty steady with a few slowdowns in between. Yes,I think the ecconomy in general will be better but in Coffeyville Kansas we run a few years behind the national economy. Any national downturn takes 5 years or so to hit me in the zipper and any recovery lags by the same amount. 
  Now ,get this little tidbit,even having said what I just said I also run pretty consistent sales volume wise regardless of the economy year to year speaking. Any national downturn lets me RAISE my margins due to the fact the big box stores HAVE to raise theirs to maintain bottom line during slow economic times,yet my volume remains steady and my net is increased. That makes me another 2-3 percent net profit per year. Sweet.  Sadly though when the big box stores volumes increase  with better economic times ,they lower their margins due to larger volumes,I have to also lower my margins yet my volume remains the same unlike the big box stores.
   Effin ironic that I dislike President O's policies such as Obamacare deeply yet if he keeps the recovery slowwwwwwwwww by pushing the expensive damn thing on us,I'll have a much better year. Probably.
  WHat was the question again? 

[WelderPat]

 You can probably offset a decline in margins by buying stock in USG.

[fabr]

I spend all investment money on toys............................................

[fastcorvairs]

Will 2014 for me will be the end of and area for me.  I made the big move last year well the end of 2011 and added machine's in anticipation of a 30% increase in work from my main vendor.  This is what was told to me buy my buyer.  Will what happened is my one egg in the basket sold out to a big New York firm that only will farm out work to the company's that they own.  That mean's that all my work is now going over seas or out of state. It takes me about 8K in wages and tax's a month to keep the doors open.  That means that when I get back from vacation I have about three months to ether find other custom's or sell out.  It has been good for last three or four years but this last year has been a downer.  This is not a bad thing for I think I am ready to move onto something else. Don't know what just yet but there is always tomorrow.    Any one interested in a CNC machine shop ?  Give me a call. 

[Carlriddle]

I manage a retail store for a concrete company. Business is up. Residential is growing again and commercial and industrial is booming.  But our business is only 60% of where we were 5yrs back.

[Yummi]

I dont see any good in 2014.  Can explain in great detail, but for now I have had too much nog.

[BDKW1]

Unless we change our marketing guy, we will keep getting killed. Sales keep increasing, but not like they should.

[Yummi]

OK - Nog grog off:

Obama care will take about 75b from consumers.  That is a lot of discretionary income. 

Fed is starting to taper.  Look at Japan in 2006 with "Taper."  Markets should drop.

Employment Participation rate is at 30 year low.   No signs it will change.

Mortgage application rate is at 13 year low. 

Inflation, when measured as they did in the 1970s is about 8/9%.  Currently called around 3% by .gov or media but that is a made up number. 



Big picture I just don't see an improvement.  Some sectors may boom, but no overall growth. 

[fabr]

Well, I'll be fine then as per my previous post. Too bad the rest of the country won't.

[sandracer1]

For me 2014 is about the same maybe a little better. I am an industrial maint.. tech specialist in the pharmaceutical industry. We are pretty sound. Either you get your meds or die. With the economy and everyones stress levels up my industry will always survive.
I just have to keep my hands out of the controlled substances.lol  so they dont catch me with a random.    I wish all the best to all in the new year.

[dsrace]

Obama car might hit the drug ind at some point but time will tell. hope it doesn't affect you though sandracer1